Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Marek vs Strumska Slava — Second League 2018

Marek
Marek
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Strumska Slava
Strumska Slava
5/21/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 38Stadion Bonchuk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Marek52%
×Draw28%
Strumska Slava21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marek
1.38
Strumska Slava
0.76

Marek creates 82% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 113 away

creates per match

Marek
1.29
Strumska Slava
0.81

allows per match

Marek
0.71
Strumska Slava
1.46

finishing

Marek+0.00on par
Strumska Slava+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marek ↓

Strumska Slava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Marek or draw
79%
Marek or Strumska Slava
72%
Draw or Strumska Slava
48%

Winning margin

Marek wins by 2+
25%
Strumska Slava wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Marek 1+ goals
75%
Marek 2+ goals
40%
Marek 3+ goals
16%
Strumska Slava 1+ goals
53%
Strumska Slava 2+ goals
18%
Strumska Slava 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Marek (draw refunded)
71%
Strumska Slava (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marek at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 70 matches

Strumska Slava away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.46 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marek attack 1.29 + Strumska Slava defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.38

Strumska Slava attack 0.81 + Marek defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Marek scores more
52%
level
28%
Strumska Slava scores more
21%

Marek at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Marek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marek vs Strumska Slava

Marek beat Strumska Slava 4-2 in Second League on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Bonchuk in Dupnitsa.