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Marek vs Perun Kresna — Third League - Southwest 2018

Marek
Marek
FT
2 – 0
Perun Kresna
Perun Kresna
9/12/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 6Stadion Bonchuk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Marek76%
×Draw16%
Perun Kresna8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marek
2.38
Perun Kresna
0.65

Marek creates 266% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 26 away

creates per match

Marek
2.17
Perun Kresna
0.58

allows per match

Marek
0.71
Perun Kresna
2.58

finishing

Marek+0.00on par
Perun Kresna+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marek ↓

Perun Kresna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Marek or draw
92%
Marek or Perun Kresna
84%
Draw or Perun Kresna
24%

Winning margin

Marek wins by 2+
52%
Perun Kresna wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Marek 1+ goals
91%
Marek 2+ goals
68%
Marek 3+ goals
42%
Perun Kresna 1+ goals
48%
Perun Kresna 2+ goals
14%
Perun Kresna 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Marek (draw refunded)
90%
Perun Kresna (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marek at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.71 · 58 matches

Perun Kresna away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marek attack 2.17 + Perun Kresna defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.38

Perun Kresna attack 0.58 + Marek defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Marek scores more
76%
level
16%
Perun Kresna scores more
8%

Marek at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Marek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Marek 2–0 Perun Kresna

Marek beat Perun Kresna 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Bonchuk in Dupnitsa.