Marek 1–0 Ludogorets II: Result & Stats

Marek

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ludogorets II

7/26/2025

Second League · Round 1Stadion Bonchuk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Marek49%

×Draw28%

Ludogorets II23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarekExpected goals in this matchLudogorets II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.82

Marek

1.35

Ludogorets II

0.82

Marek creates 65% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 131 away

1.29

creates per match

0.93

0.71

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Marek

1.29

Ludogorets II

0.93

allows per match

Marek

0.71

Ludogorets II

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marek+0.00on par

Ludogorets II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marek ↓

Ludogorets II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Marek or draw

77%

Marek or Ludogorets II

72%

Draw or Ludogorets II

51%

Winning margin

Marek wins by 2+

24%

Ludogorets II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Marek 1+ goals

74%

Marek 2+ goals

39%

Marek 3+ goals

15%

Ludogorets II 1+ goals

56%

Ludogorets II 2+ goals

20%

Ludogorets II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Marek (draw refunded)

68%

Ludogorets II (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marek at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 70 matches

Ludogorets II away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.41 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marek attack 1.29 + Ludogorets II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Ludogorets II attack 0.93 + Marek defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Marek scores more

49%

level

28%

Ludogorets II scores more

23%

Marek at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Marek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff