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Marek vs Levski Rakovski — Third League - Southwest 2018

Marek
Marek
FT
4 – 1
Levski Rakovski
Levski Rakovski
12/4/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 18Stadion Bonchuk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Marek69%
×Draw19%
Levski Rakovski12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marek
2.18
Levski Rakovski
0.79

Marek creates 176% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 16 away

creates per match

Marek
2.17
Levski Rakovski
0.88

allows per match

Marek
0.71
Levski Rakovski
2.19

finishing

Marek+0.00on par
Levski Rakovski+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marek ↓

Levski Rakovski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Marek or draw
88%
Marek or Levski Rakovski
81%
Draw or Levski Rakovski
31%

Winning margin

Marek wins by 2+
45%
Levski Rakovski wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Marek 1+ goals
89%
Marek 2+ goals
64%
Marek 3+ goals
37%
Levski Rakovski 1+ goals
55%
Levski Rakovski 2+ goals
19%
Levski Rakovski 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Marek (draw refunded)
85%
Levski Rakovski (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marek at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.71 · 58 matches

Levski Rakovski away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marek attack 2.17 + Levski Rakovski defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.18

Levski Rakovski attack 0.88 + Marek defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Marek scores more
69%
level
19%
Levski Rakovski scores more
12%

Marek at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Marek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Marek 4–1 Levski Rakovski

Marek beat Levski Rakovski 4-1 in Third League - Southwest on December 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Bonchuk in Dupnitsa.