Marek 6–0 Levski Chepintsi: Result & Stats

Marek

FT

6 – 0

Levski Chepintsi

2/24/2021

Third League - Southwest · South-West - 18Stadion Bonchuk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Marek83%

×Draw11%

Levski Chepintsi6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarekExpected goals in this matchLevski Chepintsi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.97

0.66

Marek

2.97

Levski Chepintsi

0.66

Marek creates 350% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 36 away

2.17

creates per match

0.61

0.71

allows per match

3.78

creates per match

Marek

2.17

Levski Chepintsi

0.61

allows per match

Marek

0.71

Levski Chepintsi

3.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marek+0.00on par

Levski Chepintsi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marek ↓

Levski Chepintsi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–15%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Marek or draw

94%

Marek or Levski Chepintsi

89%

Draw or Levski Chepintsi

17%

Winning margin

Marek wins by 2+

64%

Levski Chepintsi wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Marek 1+ goals

95%

Marek 2+ goals

79%

Marek 3+ goals

56%

Levski Chepintsi 1+ goals

48%

Levski Chepintsi 2+ goals

14%

Levski Chepintsi 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Marek (draw refunded)

94%

Levski Chepintsi (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marek at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.71 · 58 matches

Levski Chepintsi away — creates 0.61, concedes 3.78 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marek attack 2.17 + Levski Chepintsi defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.97

Levski Chepintsi attack 0.61 + Marek defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Marek scores more

83%

level

11%

Levski Chepintsi scores more

6%

Marek at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Marek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff