Marek vs CSKA Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 34+ matches
Marek54%
CSKA Sofia II22%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Marek creates 68% more chances
Season form · 58 home / 34 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Marek ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Marek at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.71 · 58 matches
CSKA Sofia II away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Marek attack 2.17 + CSKA Sofia II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.80
CSKA Sofia II attack 1.44 + Marek defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.07
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
Marek at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "Marek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Rilski Sportist
Strumska Slava
Slavia Sofia II
Botev Ihtiman
CSKA Sofia III
Oborishte
Septemvri Sofia II
Septemvri Simitli
Kostinbrod
Kyustendil
Balkan Botevgrad
Bansko
Pirin Razlog
Slivnishki geroy
Levski Sofia II
Vitosha Bistritsa
Pirin Gotse Delchev
GermaneyaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Marek host CSKA Sofia II on Saturday, 6 May 2023 at 15:00. The match is part of the Third League - Southwest 2018/2019 season.
Third League - Southwest: Marek 2–2 CSKA Sofia II
Marek and CSKA Sofia II drew 2-2 in Third League - Southwest on May 6, 2023.
The match was played at Stadion Bonchuk in Dupnitsa.