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Marek vs CSKA 1948 Sofia III — Third League - Southwest 2018

Marek
Marek
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
10/8/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 10Stadion Bonchuk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Marek61%
×Draw21%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marek
1.98
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
0.96

Marek creates 106% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 52 away

creates per match

Marek
2.17
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.21

allows per match

Marek
0.71
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.79

finishing

Marek+0.00on par
CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marek ↓

CSKA 1948 Sofia III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Marek or draw
82%
Marek or CSKA 1948 Sofia III
79%
Draw or CSKA 1948 Sofia III
39%

Winning margin

Marek wins by 2+
37%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Marek 1+ goals
86%
Marek 2+ goals
59%
Marek 3+ goals
31%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals
62%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals
25%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Marek (draw refunded)
77%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marek at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.71 · 58 matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marek attack 2.17 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.98

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.21 + Marek defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Marek scores more
61%
level
21%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more
18%

Marek at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Marek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marek vs CSKA 1948 Sofia III

Marek and CSKA 1948 Sofia III drew 1-1 in Third League - Southwest on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Bonchuk in Dupnitsa.