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Marek vs Chavdar Etropole — Third League - Southwest 2018

Marek
Marek
FT
2 – 0
Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
10/10/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 10Stadion Bonchuk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Marek52%
×Draw24%
Chavdar Etropole25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marek
1.75
Chavdar Etropole
1.13

Marek creates 55% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 87 away

creates per match

Marek
2.17
Chavdar Etropole
1.55

allows per match

Marek
0.71
Chavdar Etropole
1.34

finishing

Marek+0.00on par
Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marek ↓

Chavdar Etropole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Marek or draw
75%
Marek or Chavdar Etropole
76%
Draw or Chavdar Etropole
48%

Winning margin

Marek wins by 2+
28%
Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Marek 1+ goals
83%
Marek 2+ goals
52%
Marek 3+ goals
25%
Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
68%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
31%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Marek (draw refunded)
68%
Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marek at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.71 · 58 matches

Chavdar Etropole away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.34 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marek attack 2.17 + Chavdar Etropole defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.75

Chavdar Etropole attack 1.55 + Marek defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Marek scores more
52%
level
24%
Chavdar Etropole scores more
25%

Marek at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Marek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Marek 2–0 Chavdar Etropole

Marek beat Chavdar Etropole 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Bonchuk in Dupnitsa.