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Marek vs Botev Plovdiv II — Second League 2018

Marek
Marek
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Botev Plovdiv II
Botev Plovdiv II
4/6/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 30Stadion Bonchuk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Marek62%
×Draw24%
Botev Plovdiv II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marek
1.61
Botev Plovdiv II
0.61

Marek creates 164% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 54 away

creates per match

Marek
1.29
Botev Plovdiv II
0.52

allows per match

Marek
0.71
Botev Plovdiv II
1.93

finishing

Marek+0.00on par
Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marek ↓

Botev Plovdiv II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Marek or draw
86%
Marek or Botev Plovdiv II
76%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv II
38%

Winning margin

Marek wins by 2+
34%
Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Marek 1+ goals
80%
Marek 2+ goals
48%
Marek 3+ goals
22%
Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals
46%
Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals
13%
Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Marek (draw refunded)
82%
Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marek at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 70 matches

Botev Plovdiv II away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.93 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marek attack 1.29 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.61

Botev Plovdiv II attack 0.52 + Marek defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Marek scores more
62%
level
24%
Botev Plovdiv II scores more
14%

Marek at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Marek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Marek 1–0 Botev Plovdiv II

Marek beat Botev Plovdiv II 1-0 in Second League on April 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Bonchuk in Dupnitsa.