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Marek vs Bdin — Second League 2018

Marek
Marek
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bdin
Bdin
12/10/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 20Stadion Bonchuk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Marek62%
×Draw24%
Bdin13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marek
1.61
Bdin
0.59

Marek creates 173% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 17 away

creates per match

Marek
1.29
Bdin
0.47

allows per match

Marek
0.71
Bdin
1.94

finishing

Marek+0.00on par
Bdin+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marek ↓

Bdin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Marek or draw
87%
Marek or Bdin
76%
Draw or Bdin
38%

Winning margin

Marek wins by 2+
34%
Bdin wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Marek 1+ goals
80%
Marek 2+ goals
48%
Marek 3+ goals
22%
Bdin 1+ goals
45%
Bdin 2+ goals
12%
Bdin 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Marek (draw refunded)
82%
Bdin (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marek at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 70 matches

Bdin away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marek attack 1.29 + Bdin defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.61

Bdin attack 0.47 + Marek defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Marek scores more
62%
level
24%
Bdin scores more
13%

Marek at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Marek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marek vs Bdin

Marek beat Bdin 1-0 in Second League on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Bonchuk in Dupnitsa.