Mardin 1969 2–1 Kahta 02 Spor: Result & Stats

Mardin 1969

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kahta 02 Spor

8/29/2019

Türkiye Kupası · 1st Round21 Kasım Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mardin 196937%

×Draw25%

Kahta 02 Spor39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mardin 1969Expected goals in this matchKahta 02 Spor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.50

Mardin 1969

1.46

Kahta 02 Spor

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

0.75

creates per match

1.50

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Mardin 1969

0.75

Kahta 02 Spor

1.50

allows per match

Mardin 1969

1.50

Kahta 02 Spor

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mardin 1969+0.00on par

Kahta 02 Spor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mardin 1969 ↓

Kahta 02 Spor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Mardin 1969 or draw

61%

Mardin 1969 or Kahta 02 Spor

75%

Draw or Kahta 02 Spor

63%

Winning margin

Mardin 1969 wins by 2+

17%

Kahta 02 Spor wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Mardin 1969 1+ goals

77%

Mardin 1969 2+ goals

43%

Mardin 1969 3+ goals

18%

Kahta 02 Spor 1+ goals

78%

Kahta 02 Spor 2+ goals

44%

Kahta 02 Spor 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Mardin 1969 (draw refunded)

49%

Kahta 02 Spor (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mardin 1969 at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Kahta 02 Spor away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mardin 1969 attack 0.75 + Kahta 02 Spor defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.46

Kahta 02 Spor attack 1.50 + Mardin 1969 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mardin 1969 scores more

37%

level

25%

Kahta 02 Spor scores more

39%

Kahta 02 Spor at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kahta 02 Spor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff