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Mardin 1969 vs Gümüşhanespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Mardin 1969
Mardin 1969
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gümüşhanespor
Gümüşhanespor
9/30/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd Round21 Kasım Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mardin 196932%
×Draw33%
Gümüşhanespor36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mardin 1969
0.88
Gümüşhanespor
0.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Mardin 1969
0.75
Gümüşhanespor
0.40

allows per match

Mardin 1969
1.50
Gümüşhanespor
1.00

finishing

Mardin 1969+0.00on par
Gümüşhanespor+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mardin 1969 ↓

Gümüşhanespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mardin 1969 or draw
64%
Mardin 1969 or Gümüşhanespor
67%
Draw or Gümüşhanespor
68%

Winning margin

Mardin 1969 wins by 2+
11%
Gümüşhanespor wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mardin 1969 1+ goals
59%
Mardin 1969 2+ goals
22%
Mardin 1969 3+ goals
6%
Gümüşhanespor 1+ goals
61%
Gümüşhanespor 2+ goals
25%
Gümüşhanespor 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mardin 1969 (draw refunded)
47%
Gümüşhanespor (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mardin 1969 at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Gümüşhanespor away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mardin 1969 attack 0.75 + Gümüşhanespor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Gümüşhanespor attack 0.40 + Mardin 1969 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Mardin 1969 scores more
32%
level
33%
Gümüşhanespor scores more
36%

Gümüşhanespor at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Gümüşhanespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mardin 1969 vs Gümüşhanespor

Mardin 1969 beat Gümüşhanespor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 30, 2021.

The match was played at 21 Kasım Şehir Stadyumu in Mardin.