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Mardin 1969 vs Altay — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Mardin 1969
Mardin 1969
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Altay
Altay
9/24/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd Round21 Kasım Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mardin 196938%
×Draw25%
Altay37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mardin 1969
1.48
Altay
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Mardin 1969
0.75
Altay
1.40

allows per match

Mardin 1969
1.50
Altay
2.20

finishing

Mardin 1969+0.00on par
Altay+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mardin 1969 ↓

Altay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Mardin 1969 or draw
63%
Mardin 1969 or Altay
75%
Draw or Altay
62%

Winning margin

Mardin 1969 wins by 2+
18%
Altay wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Mardin 1969 1+ goals
77%
Mardin 1969 2+ goals
43%
Mardin 1969 3+ goals
19%
Altay 1+ goals
77%
Altay 2+ goals
42%
Altay 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Mardin 1969 (draw refunded)
51%
Altay (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mardin 1969 at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Altay away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mardin 1969 attack 0.75 + Altay defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.48

Altay attack 1.40 + Mardin 1969 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mardin 1969 scores more
38%
level
25%
Altay scores more
37%

Mardin 1969 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mardin 1969 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Mardin 1969 0–2 Altay

Altay beat Mardin 1969 2-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 24, 2019.

The match was played at 21 Kasım Şehir Stadyumu in Mardin.