Marconi Stallions 2–2 North Shore Mariners

Marconi Stallions

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

North Shore Mariners

M. Jesic 82'

M. Mallia 45'

S. De Robillard 35' (pen)

K. Cimenti 32'

6/6/2021

New South Wales NPL · Round 15Marconi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Marconi Stallions52%

×Draw22%

North Shore Mariners26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Marconi StallionsExpected goals in this matchNorth Shore Mariners

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

1.39

Marconi Stallions

2.03

North Shore Mariners

1.39

Marconi Stallions creates 46% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 30 away

2.16

creates per match

1.50

1.28

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Marconi Stallions

2.16

North Shore Mariners

1.50

allows per match

Marconi Stallions

1.28

North Shore Mariners

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marconi Stallions+0.00on par

North Shore Mariners+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marconi Stallions ↓

North Shore Mariners →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Marconi Stallions or draw

74%

Marconi Stallions or North Shore Mariners

78%

Draw or North Shore Mariners

48%

Winning margin

Marconi Stallions wins by 2+

30%

North Shore Mariners wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Marconi Stallions 1+ goals

87%

Marconi Stallions 2+ goals

60%

Marconi Stallions 3+ goals

33%

North Shore Mariners 1+ goals

75%

North Shore Mariners 2+ goals

40%

North Shore Mariners 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Marconi Stallions (draw refunded)

66%

North Shore Mariners (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marconi Stallions at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.28 · 97 matches

North Shore Mariners away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marconi Stallions attack 2.16 + North Shore Mariners defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.03

North Shore Mariners attack 1.50 + Marconi Stallions defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Marconi Stallions scores more

52%

level

22%

North Shore Mariners scores more

26%

Marconi Stallions at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Marconi Stallions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

K. Cimenti

35'

S. De RobillardPenalty

45'

M. Mallia↳ C. Evans

46'

N. Ujdur← B. Clarkson

56'

E. Peters← C. Hatfield

63'

M. Rodic← Z. Cairncross

63'

M. Fernandez← C. Evans

65'

J. Jovanovski← L. Sepping

81'

A. Krilic← S. De Robillard

82'

M. Jesic↳ B. Vella

88'

D. Bonilla← B. Jauch

90'

A. Frangie

Marconi

North

1

Wood

13

Scott

17

Nicolaou

12

▼

Clarkson

10

Jordan

6

▼

Sepping

15

Caspers

2

Mcloughli

8

⚽

Cimenti

9

▼

Jauch

11

⚽

▼

Robillard

1

Vekic

19

▼

3

2

16

8

A

▼

Evans

23

A

Vella

10

⚽

Jesic

11

⚽

Mallia

14

Frangie

7

▼

Hatfield

Manager: P. Tsekenis

56'▲E. Peters←▼C. Hatfield

63'▲M. Rodic←▼Z. Cairncross

63'▲M. Fernandez←▼C. Evans

Marconi Stallions substitutes

21Peters6Rodic17Fernandez5Ingram20Shaw4Speranza

Manager: M. Sterjovski

46'▲N. Ujdur←▼B. Clarkson

65'▲J. Jovanovski←▼L. Sepping

81'▲A. Krilic←▼S. De Robillard

88'▲D. Bonilla←▼B. Jauch

North Shore Mariners substitutes

4Ujdur16Jovanovski21Krilic18Bonilla14Panuccio40Barry