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Marconi Stallions vs Central Coast II — New South Wales NPL 2026

Marconi Stallions
Marconi Stallions
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Central Coast II
Central Coast II
M. Jesic 63', 52'
G. Daniel 31'
4/19/2025New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 11Marconi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Marconi Stallions61%
×Draw20%
Central Coast II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marconi Stallions
2.17
Central Coast II
1.14

Marconi Stallions creates 90% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 46 away

creates per match

Marconi Stallions
2.16
Central Coast II
1.00

allows per match

Marconi Stallions
1.28
Central Coast II
2.17

finishing

Marconi Stallions+0.00on par
Central Coast II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marconi Stallions ↓

Central Coast II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Marconi Stallions or draw
81%
Marconi Stallions or Central Coast II
80%
Draw or Central Coast II
39%

Winning margin

Marconi Stallions wins by 2+
38%
Central Coast II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Marconi Stallions 1+ goals
89%
Marconi Stallions 2+ goals
64%
Marconi Stallions 3+ goals
36%
Central Coast II 1+ goals
68%
Central Coast II 2+ goals
32%
Central Coast II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Marconi Stallions (draw refunded)
76%
Central Coast II (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marconi Stallions at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.28 · 97 matches

Central Coast II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marconi Stallions attack 2.16 + Central Coast II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.17

Central Coast II attack 1.00 + Marconi Stallions defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Marconi Stallions scores more
61%
level
20%
Central Coast II scores more
19%

Marconi Stallions at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Marconi Stallions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
G. Daniel
52'
M. Jesic
63'
M. Jesic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marconi Stallions vs Central Coast II

Marconi Stallions beat Central Coast II 3-0 in New South Wales NPL on April 19, 2025.

Goals: G. Daniel (31'), M. Jesic (52', 63').

The match was played at Marconi Stadium in Sydney.