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Marcílio Dias vs Pelotas — Serie D 2018

Marcílio Dias
Marcílio Dias
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pelotas
Pelotas
11/28/2020Serie DSerie D · Round 14Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Marcílio Dias28%
×Draw33%
Pelotas39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marcílio Dias
0.78
Pelotas
0.98

Pelotas creates 26% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 7 away

creates per match

Marcílio Dias
1.26
Pelotas
1.29

allows per match

Marcílio Dias
0.67
Pelotas
0.29

finishing

Marcílio Dias+0.00on par
Pelotas+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marcílio Dias ↓

Pelotas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–117%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Marcílio Dias or draw
61%
Marcílio Dias or Pelotas
67%
Draw or Pelotas
72%

Winning margin

Marcílio Dias wins by 2+
9%
Pelotas wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Marcílio Dias 1+ goals
54%
Marcílio Dias 2+ goals
18%
Marcílio Dias 3+ goals
4%
Pelotas 1+ goals
62%
Pelotas 2+ goals
26%
Pelotas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Marcílio Dias (draw refunded)
42%
Pelotas (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marcílio Dias at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.67 · 39 matches

Pelotas away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marcílio Dias attack 1.26 + Pelotas defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.78

Pelotas attack 1.29 + Marcílio Dias defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Marcílio Dias scores more
28%
level
33%
Pelotas scores more
39%

Pelotas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pelotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Marcílio Dias 1–0 Pelotas

Marcílio Dias beat Pelotas 1-0 in Serie D on November 28, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz in Itajaí, Santa Catarina.