Marcílio Dias 1–1 Cascavel: Result & Stats

Marcílio Dias

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cascavel

4/23/2022

Serie D · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Marcílio Dias45%

×Draw30%

Cascavel25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Marcílio DiasExpected goals in this matchCascavel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.80

Marcílio Dias

1.18

Cascavel

0.80

Marcílio Dias creates 47% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 51 away

1.26

creates per match

0.94

0.67

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Marcílio Dias

1.26

Cascavel

0.94

allows per match

Marcílio Dias

0.67

Cascavel

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marcílio Dias+0.00on par

Cascavel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marcílio Dias ↓

Cascavel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Marcílio Dias or draw

75%

Marcílio Dias or Cascavel

70%

Draw or Cascavel

55%

Winning margin

Marcílio Dias wins by 2+

19%

Cascavel wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Marcílio Dias 1+ goals

69%

Marcílio Dias 2+ goals

33%

Marcílio Dias 3+ goals

12%

Cascavel 1+ goals

55%

Cascavel 2+ goals

19%

Cascavel 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Marcílio Dias (draw refunded)

64%

Cascavel (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marcílio Dias at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.67 · 39 matches

Cascavel away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marcílio Dias attack 1.26 + Cascavel defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Cascavel attack 0.94 + Marcílio Dias defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Marcílio Dias scores more

45%

level

30%

Cascavel scores more

25%

Marcílio Dias at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Marcílio Dias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff