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Marcílio Dias vs Brasil DE Pelotas — Serie D 2026

Marcílio Dias
Marcílio Dias
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Brasil DE Pelotas
Brasil DE Pelotas
Gabriel Lyra 85'
Manoel 48'
Robinho 8'
Davi Torres 1'
Gabriel Morbeck 54'
5/9/2026Serie DSerie D · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Marcílio Dias51%
×Draw29%
Brasil DE Pelotas20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marcílio Dias
1.29
Brasil DE Pelotas
0.68

Marcílio Dias creates 90% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 29 away

creates per match

Marcílio Dias
1.26
Brasil DE Pelotas
0.69

allows per match

Marcílio Dias
0.66
Brasil DE Pelotas
1.31

finishing

Marcílio Dias+0.00on par
Brasil DE Pelotas+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marcílio Dias ↓

Brasil DE Pelotas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Marcílio Dias or draw
80%
Marcílio Dias or Brasil DE Pelotas
71%
Draw or Brasil DE Pelotas
49%

Winning margin

Marcílio Dias wins by 2+
24%
Brasil DE Pelotas wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Marcílio Dias 1+ goals
72%
Marcílio Dias 2+ goals
37%
Marcílio Dias 3+ goals
14%
Brasil DE Pelotas 1+ goals
49%
Brasil DE Pelotas 2+ goals
15%
Brasil DE Pelotas 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Marcílio Dias (draw refunded)
72%
Brasil DE Pelotas (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marcílio Dias at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.66 · 38 matches

Brasil DE Pelotas away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marcílio Dias attack 1.26 + Brasil DE Pelotas defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Brasil DE Pelotas attack 0.69 + Marcílio Dias defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Marcílio Dias scores more
51%
level
29%
Brasil DE Pelotas scores more
20%

Marcílio Dias at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Marcílio Dias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
Davi Torres
8'
Robinho
48'
Manoel
54'
Gabriel Morbeck
85'
Gabriel Lyra

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marcílio Dias vs Brasil DE Pelotas

Marcílio Dias beat Brasil DE Pelotas 4-1 in Serie D on May 9, 2026.

Goals: Davi Torres (1'), Robinho (8'), Manoel (48'), Gabriel Morbeck (54'), Gabriel Lyra (85').