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Marcilio Dias U20 vs Internacional SC U20 — Catarinense U20 2024

Marcilio Dias U20
Marcilio Dias U20
FT
6 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Internacional SC U20
Internacional SC U20
7/13/2024Catarinense U20Catarinense U20 · 1st Phase - 21CFT Barra FC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Marcilio Dias U2085%
×Draw10%
Internacional SC U205%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marcilio Dias U20
3.42
Internacional SC U20
0.80

Marcilio Dias U20 creates 327% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 10 away

creates per match

Marcilio Dias U20
1.65
Internacional SC U20
0.40

allows per match

Marcilio Dias U20
1.20
Internacional SC U20
5.20

finishing

Marcilio Dias U20+0.00on par
Internacional SC U20+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marcilio Dias U20 ↓

Internacional SC U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Marcilio Dias U20 or draw
95%
Marcilio Dias U20 or Internacional SC U20
90%
Draw or Internacional SC U20
15%

Winning margin

Marcilio Dias U20 wins by 2+
68%
Internacional SC U20 wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Marcilio Dias U20 1+ goals
97%
Marcilio Dias U20 2+ goals
85%
Marcilio Dias U20 3+ goals
64%
Internacional SC U20 1+ goals
55%
Internacional SC U20 2+ goals
19%
Internacional SC U20 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Marcilio Dias U20 (draw refunded)
94%
Internacional SC U20 (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marcilio Dias U20 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Internacional SC U20 away — creates 0.40, concedes 5.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marcilio Dias U20 attack 1.65 + Internacional SC U20 defence 5.20 → ÷2 → 3.42

Internacional SC U20 attack 0.40 + Marcilio Dias U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Marcilio Dias U20 scores more
85%
level
10%
Internacional SC U20 scores more
5%

Marcilio Dias U20 at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Marcilio Dias U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marcilio Dias U20 vs Internacional SC U20

Marcilio Dias U20 beat Internacional SC U20 6-0 in Catarinense U20 on July 13, 2024.

The match was played at CFT Barra FC in Camboriú, Santa Catarina.