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Marcilio Dias U20 vs Criciuma U20 — Catarinense U20 2024

Marcilio Dias U20
Marcilio Dias U20
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Criciuma U20
Criciuma U20
7/28/2024Catarinense U20Catarinense U20 · Semi-finalsEstádio Doutor Hercílio Luz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Marcilio Dias U2035%
×Draw28%
Criciuma U2037%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marcilio Dias U20
1.14
Criciuma U20
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 29 away

creates per match

Marcilio Dias U20
1.65
Criciuma U20
1.14

allows per match

Marcilio Dias U20
1.20
Criciuma U20
0.62

finishing

Marcilio Dias U20+0.00on par
Criciuma U20+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marcilio Dias U20 ↓

Criciuma U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Marcilio Dias U20 or draw
63%
Marcilio Dias U20 or Criciuma U20
72%
Draw or Criciuma U20
65%

Winning margin

Marcilio Dias U20 wins by 2+
14%
Criciuma U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Marcilio Dias U20 1+ goals
68%
Marcilio Dias U20 2+ goals
32%
Marcilio Dias U20 3+ goals
11%
Criciuma U20 1+ goals
69%
Criciuma U20 2+ goals
33%
Criciuma U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Marcilio Dias U20 (draw refunded)
49%
Criciuma U20 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marcilio Dias U20 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Criciuma U20 away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marcilio Dias U20 attack 1.65 + Criciuma U20 defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.14

Criciuma U20 attack 1.14 + Marcilio Dias U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Marcilio Dias U20 scores more
35%
level
28%
Criciuma U20 scores more
37%

Criciuma U20 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Criciuma U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marcilio Dias U20 vs Criciuma U20

Marcilio Dias U20 and Criciuma U20 drew 2-2 in Catarinense U20 on July 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz in Itajaí, Santa Catarina.