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Marcilio Dias U20 vs Chapecoense U20 — Catarinense U20 2024

Marcilio Dias U20
Marcilio Dias U20
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chapecoense U20
Chapecoense U20
6/5/2024Catarinense U20Catarinense U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Marcilio Dias U2042%
×Draw23%
Chapecoense U2035%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marcilio Dias U20
1.67
Chapecoense U20
1.51

Marcilio Dias U20 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 28 away

creates per match

Marcilio Dias U20
1.65
Chapecoense U20
1.82

allows per match

Marcilio Dias U20
1.20
Chapecoense U20
1.68

finishing

Marcilio Dias U20+0.00on par
Chapecoense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marcilio Dias U20 ↓

Chapecoense U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Marcilio Dias U20 or draw
65%
Marcilio Dias U20 or Chapecoense U20
77%
Draw or Chapecoense U20
58%

Winning margin

Marcilio Dias U20 wins by 2+
21%
Chapecoense U20 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Marcilio Dias U20 1+ goals
81%
Marcilio Dias U20 2+ goals
50%
Marcilio Dias U20 3+ goals
23%
Chapecoense U20 1+ goals
78%
Chapecoense U20 2+ goals
44%
Chapecoense U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Marcilio Dias U20 (draw refunded)
54%
Chapecoense U20 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marcilio Dias U20 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Chapecoense U20 away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.68 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marcilio Dias U20 attack 1.65 + Chapecoense U20 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.67

Chapecoense U20 attack 1.82 + Marcilio Dias U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Marcilio Dias U20 scores more
42%
level
23%
Chapecoense U20 scores more
35%

Marcilio Dias U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Marcilio Dias U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marcilio Dias U20 vs Chapecoense U20

Marcilio Dias U20 beat Chapecoense U20 2-0 in Catarinense U20 on June 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz in Itajaí, Santa Catarina.