Marcilio Dias U20 1–2 Barra SC U20: Result & Stats

Marcilio Dias U20

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Barra SC U20

4/6/2024

Catarinense U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Marcilio Dias U2031%

×Draw25%

Barra SC U2044%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Marcilio Dias U20Expected goals in this matchBarra SC U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.52

Marcilio Dias U20

1.23

Barra SC U20

1.52

Barra SC U20 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 27 away

1.65

creates per match

1.85

1.20

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Marcilio Dias U20

1.65

Barra SC U20

1.85

allows per match

Marcilio Dias U20

1.20

Barra SC U20

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marcilio Dias U20+0.00on par

Barra SC U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marcilio Dias U20 ↓

Barra SC U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Marcilio Dias U20 or draw

56%

Marcilio Dias U20 or Barra SC U20

75%

Draw or Barra SC U20

69%

Winning margin

Marcilio Dias U20 wins by 2+

13%

Barra SC U20 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Marcilio Dias U20 1+ goals

71%

Marcilio Dias U20 2+ goals

35%

Marcilio Dias U20 3+ goals

13%

Barra SC U20 1+ goals

78%

Barra SC U20 2+ goals

45%

Barra SC U20 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Marcilio Dias U20 (draw refunded)

41%

Barra SC U20 (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marcilio Dias U20 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Barra SC U20 away — creates 1.85, concedes 0.81 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marcilio Dias U20 attack 1.65 + Barra SC U20 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.23

Barra SC U20 attack 1.85 + Marcilio Dias U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Marcilio Dias U20 scores more

31%

level

25%

Barra SC U20 scores more

44%

Barra SC U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Barra SC U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff