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Marcilio Dias U20 vs Avaí U20 — Catarinense U20 2024

Marcilio Dias U20
Marcilio Dias U20
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Avaí U20
Avaí U20
5/9/2025Catarinense U20Catarinense U20 · 1st Phase - 6CT do Marcílio Dias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Marcilio Dias U2035%
×Draw25%
Avaí U2040%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marcilio Dias U20
1.40
Avaí U20
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 25 away

creates per match

Marcilio Dias U20
1.65
Avaí U20
1.84

allows per match

Marcilio Dias U20
1.20
Avaí U20
1.16

finishing

Marcilio Dias U20+0.00on par
Avaí U20+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marcilio Dias U20 ↓

Avaí U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Marcilio Dias U20 or draw
60%
Marcilio Dias U20 or Avaí U20
75%
Draw or Avaí U20
65%

Winning margin

Marcilio Dias U20 wins by 2+
16%
Avaí U20 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Marcilio Dias U20 1+ goals
75%
Marcilio Dias U20 2+ goals
41%
Marcilio Dias U20 3+ goals
17%
Avaí U20 1+ goals
78%
Avaí U20 2+ goals
45%
Avaí U20 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Marcilio Dias U20 (draw refunded)
46%
Avaí U20 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marcilio Dias U20 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Avaí U20 away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marcilio Dias U20 attack 1.65 + Avaí U20 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.40

Avaí U20 attack 1.84 + Marcilio Dias U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Marcilio Dias U20 scores more
35%
level
25%
Avaí U20 scores more
40%

Avaí U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Avaí U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Catarinense U20: Marcilio Dias U20 0–1 Avaí U20

Avaí U20 beat Marcilio Dias U20 1-0 in Catarinense U20 on May 9, 2025.

The match was played at CT do Marcílio Dias in Camboriú, Santa Catarina.