Marchamalo 4–1 San Clemente: Result & Stats

Marchamalo

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

San Clemente

3/31/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 27Estadio La Solana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Marchamalo54%

×Draw25%

San Clemente21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarchamaloExpected goals in this matchSan Clemente

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.88

Marchamalo

1.58

San Clemente

0.88

Marchamalo creates 80% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 50 away

1.30

creates per match

0.70

1.05

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Marchamalo

1.30

San Clemente

0.70

allows per match

Marchamalo

1.05

San Clemente

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marchamalo+0.00on par

San Clemente+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marchamalo ↓

San Clemente →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Marchamalo or draw

79%

Marchamalo or San Clemente

75%

Draw or San Clemente

46%

Winning margin

Marchamalo wins by 2+

28%

San Clemente wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Marchamalo 1+ goals

79%

Marchamalo 2+ goals

47%

Marchamalo 3+ goals

21%

San Clemente 1+ goals

59%

San Clemente 2+ goals

22%

San Clemente 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Marchamalo (draw refunded)

72%

San Clemente (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marchamalo at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

San Clemente away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.86 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marchamalo attack 1.30 + San Clemente defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.58

San Clemente attack 0.70 + Marchamalo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Marchamalo scores more

54%

level

25%

San Clemente scores more

21%

Marchamalo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Marchamalo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff