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Marchamalo vs Noblejas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Marchamalo
Marchamalo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Noblejas
Noblejas
1/11/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 17Campo Deportivo La Solana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Marchamalo55%
×Draw23%
Noblejas22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marchamalo
1.85
Noblejas
1.08

Marchamalo creates 71% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 17 away

creates per match

Marchamalo
1.30
Noblejas
1.12

allows per match

Marchamalo
1.05
Noblejas
2.41

finishing

Marchamalo+0.00on par
Noblejas+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marchamalo ↓

Noblejas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Marchamalo or draw
78%
Marchamalo or Noblejas
77%
Draw or Noblejas
45%

Winning margin

Marchamalo wins by 2+
32%
Noblejas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Marchamalo 1+ goals
84%
Marchamalo 2+ goals
55%
Marchamalo 3+ goals
28%
Noblejas 1+ goals
66%
Noblejas 2+ goals
29%
Noblejas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Marchamalo (draw refunded)
72%
Noblejas (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marchamalo at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

Noblejas away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marchamalo attack 1.30 + Noblejas defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.85

Noblejas attack 1.12 + Marchamalo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Marchamalo scores more
55%
level
23%
Noblejas scores more
22%

Marchamalo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Marchamalo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marchamalo vs Noblejas

Marchamalo beat Noblejas 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on January 11, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Deportivo La Solana in Marchamalo.