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Marchamalo vs Huracán Balazote — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Marchamalo
Marchamalo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Huracán Balazote
Huracán Balazote
3/10/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 24Estadio La Solana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Marchamalo45%
×Draw27%
Huracán Balazote27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marchamalo
1.37
Huracán Balazote
1.00

Marchamalo creates 37% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 81 away

creates per match

Marchamalo
1.30
Huracán Balazote
0.95

allows per match

Marchamalo
1.05
Huracán Balazote
1.44

finishing

Marchamalo+0.00on par
Huracán Balazote+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marchamalo ↓

Huracán Balazote →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Marchamalo or draw
73%
Marchamalo or Huracán Balazote
73%
Draw or Huracán Balazote
55%

Winning margin

Marchamalo wins by 2+
21%
Huracán Balazote wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Marchamalo 1+ goals
75%
Marchamalo 2+ goals
40%
Marchamalo 3+ goals
16%
Huracán Balazote 1+ goals
63%
Huracán Balazote 2+ goals
26%
Huracán Balazote 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Marchamalo (draw refunded)
62%
Huracán Balazote (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marchamalo at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

Huracán Balazote away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.44 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marchamalo attack 1.30 + Huracán Balazote defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.37

Huracán Balazote attack 0.95 + Marchamalo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Marchamalo scores more
45%
level
27%
Huracán Balazote scores more
27%

Marchamalo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Marchamalo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Marchamalo 1–0 Huracán Balazote

Marchamalo beat Huracán Balazote 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Solana in Marchamalo.