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Marchamalo vs Cazalegas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Marchamalo
Marchamalo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Cazalegas
Cazalegas
9/20/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 3Campo Deportivo La Solana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Marchamalo48%
×Draw26%
Cazalegas25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marchamalo
1.46
Cazalegas
0.98

Marchamalo creates 49% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 51 away

creates per match

Marchamalo
1.30
Cazalegas
0.90

allows per match

Marchamalo
1.05
Cazalegas
1.61

finishing

Marchamalo+0.00on par
Cazalegas+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marchamalo ↓

Cazalegas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Marchamalo or draw
75%
Marchamalo or Cazalegas
74%
Draw or Cazalegas
52%

Winning margin

Marchamalo wins by 2+
24%
Cazalegas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Marchamalo 1+ goals
77%
Marchamalo 2+ goals
43%
Marchamalo 3+ goals
18%
Cazalegas 1+ goals
62%
Cazalegas 2+ goals
26%
Cazalegas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Marchamalo (draw refunded)
66%
Cazalegas (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marchamalo at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

Cazalegas away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.61 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marchamalo attack 1.30 + Cazalegas defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.46

Cazalegas attack 0.90 + Marchamalo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Marchamalo scores more
48%
level
26%
Cazalegas scores more
25%

Marchamalo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Marchamalo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Marchamalo 3–0 Cazalegas

Marchamalo beat Cazalegas 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Deportivo La Solana in Marchamalo.