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Marchamalo vs Atlético Tomelloso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Marchamalo
Marchamalo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Tomelloso
Atlético Tomelloso
4/27/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 31Estadio La Solana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Marchamalo57%
×Draw25%
Atlético Tomelloso19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marchamalo
1.62
Atlético Tomelloso
0.81

Marchamalo creates 100% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 32 away

creates per match

Marchamalo
1.30
Atlético Tomelloso
0.56

allows per match

Marchamalo
1.05
Atlético Tomelloso
1.94

finishing

Marchamalo+0.00on par
Atlético Tomelloso+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marchamalo ↓

Atlético Tomelloso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Marchamalo or draw
81%
Marchamalo or Atlético Tomelloso
75%
Draw or Atlético Tomelloso
43%

Winning margin

Marchamalo wins by 2+
31%
Atlético Tomelloso wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Marchamalo 1+ goals
80%
Marchamalo 2+ goals
48%
Marchamalo 3+ goals
22%
Atlético Tomelloso 1+ goals
56%
Atlético Tomelloso 2+ goals
19%
Atlético Tomelloso 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Marchamalo (draw refunded)
75%
Atlético Tomelloso (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marchamalo at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

Atlético Tomelloso away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marchamalo attack 1.30 + Atlético Tomelloso defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.62

Atlético Tomelloso attack 0.56 + Marchamalo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Marchamalo scores more
57%
level
25%
Atlético Tomelloso scores more
19%

Marchamalo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Marchamalo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Marchamalo 0–1 Atlético Tomelloso

Atlético Tomelloso beat Marchamalo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Solana in Marchamalo.