Marcelová 0–0 Veľké Ludince: Result & Stats

Marcelová

FT

0 – 0

Veľké Ludince

9/19/2021

3. liga - West · West - 7Štadion FK Marcelová

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Marcelová55%

×Draw25%

Veľké Ludince20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarcelováExpected goals in this matchVeľké Ludince

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.88

Marcelová

1.65

Veľké Ludince

0.88

Marcelová creates 88% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 84 away

1.24

creates per match

1.00

0.76

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Marcelová

1.24

Veľké Ludince

1.00

allows per match

Marcelová

0.76

Veľké Ludince

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marcelová+0.00on par

Veľké Ludince+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marcelová ↓

Veľké Ludince →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Marcelová or draw

80%

Marcelová or Veľké Ludince

75%

Draw or Veľké Ludince

45%

Winning margin

Marcelová wins by 2+

30%

Veľké Ludince wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Marcelová 1+ goals

81%

Marcelová 2+ goals

49%

Marcelová 3+ goals

23%

Veľké Ludince 1+ goals

59%

Veľké Ludince 2+ goals

22%

Veľké Ludince 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Marcelová (draw refunded)

74%

Veľké Ludince (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marcelová at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.76 · 25 matches

Veľké Ludince away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.07 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marcelová attack 1.24 + Veľké Ludince defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.65

Veľké Ludince attack 1.00 + Marcelová defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Marcelová scores more

55%

level

25%

Veľké Ludince scores more

20%

Marcelová at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Marcelová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff