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Marcelová vs Slovan Levice — 3. liga - West 2020

Marcelová
Marcelová
FT
1 – 1
Slovan Levice
Slovan Levice
8/7/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 1Štadion FK Marcelová

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Marcelová75%
×Draw16%
Slovan Levice8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marcelová
2.29
Slovan Levice
0.61

Marcelová creates 275% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 17 away

creates per match

Marcelová
1.24
Slovan Levice
0.47

allows per match

Marcelová
0.76
Slovan Levice
3.35

finishing

Marcelová+0.00on par
Slovan Levice+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marcelová ↓

Slovan Levice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Marcelová or draw
92%
Marcelová or Slovan Levice
84%
Draw or Slovan Levice
25%

Winning margin

Marcelová wins by 2+
51%
Slovan Levice wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Marcelová 1+ goals
90%
Marcelová 2+ goals
66%
Marcelová 3+ goals
40%
Slovan Levice 1+ goals
46%
Slovan Levice 2+ goals
13%
Slovan Levice 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Marcelová (draw refunded)
90%
Slovan Levice (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marcelová at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.76 · 25 matches

Slovan Levice away — creates 0.47, concedes 3.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marcelová attack 1.24 + Slovan Levice defence 3.35 → ÷2 → 2.29

Slovan Levice attack 0.47 + Marcelová defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Marcelová scores more
75%
level
16%
Slovan Levice scores more
8%

Marcelová at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Marcelová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marcelová vs Slovan Levice

Marcelová and Slovan Levice drew 1-1 in 3. liga - West on August 7, 2021.

The match was played at Štadion FK Marcelová in Marcelová.