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Marcelová vs Imeľ — 3. liga - West 2020

Marcelová
Marcelová
CANC
13:30
Imeľ
Imeľ
4/4/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 19Štadion FK Marcelová

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Marcelová54%
×Draw27%
Imeľ19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marcelová
1.44
Imeľ
0.72

Marcelová creates 100% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

creates per match

Marcelová
1.24
Imeľ
0.68

allows per match

Marcelová
0.76
Imeľ
1.64

finishing

Marcelová+0.00on par
Imeľ+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marcelová ↓

Imeľ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Marcelová or draw
81%
Marcelová or Imeľ
73%
Draw or Imeľ
46%

Winning margin

Marcelová wins by 2+
27%
Imeľ wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Marcelová 1+ goals
76%
Marcelová 2+ goals
42%
Marcelová 3+ goals
18%
Imeľ 1+ goals
51%
Imeľ 2+ goals
16%
Imeľ 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Marcelová (draw refunded)
74%
Imeľ (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marcelová at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.76 · 25 matches

Imeľ away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.64 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marcelová attack 1.24 + Imeľ defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.44

Imeľ attack 0.68 + Marcelová defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Marcelová scores more
54%
level
27%
Imeľ scores more
19%

Marcelová at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Marcelová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Marcelová host Imeľ

April 4, 2021: Marcelová take on Imeľ in 3. liga - West. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Marcelová host Imeľ at Štadion FK Marcelová.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.