Marbelli 2–2 Malaga City: Result & Stats

Marbelli

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Malaga City

11/3/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 9Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Marbelli55%

×Draw26%

Malaga City19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarbelliExpected goals in this matchMalaga City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.80

Marbelli

1.55

Malaga City

0.80

Marbelli creates 94% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 49 away

1.15

creates per match

0.67

0.94

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Marbelli

1.15

Malaga City

0.67

allows per match

Marbelli

0.94

Malaga City

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marbelli+0.00on par

Malaga City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marbelli ↓

Malaga City →

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Marbelli or draw

81%

Marbelli or Malaga City

74%

Draw or Malaga City

45%

Winning margin

Marbelli wins by 2+

29%

Malaga City wins by 2+

Team goals

Marbelli 1+ goals

79%

Marbelli 2+ goals

46%

Marbelli 3+ goals

20%

Malaga City 1+ goals

55%

Malaga City 2+ goals

19%

Malaga City 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Marbelli (draw refunded)

74%

Malaga City (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Marbelli at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

Malaga City away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.96 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Marbelli attack 1.15 + Malaga City defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.55

Malaga City attack 0.67 + Marbelli defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Marbelli scores more

55%

level

26%

Malaga City scores more

19%

Marbelli at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Marbelli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff