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Marbelli vs El Ejido — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Marbelli
Marbelli
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
El Ejido
El Ejido
1/19/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 18Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Marbelli42%
×Draw28%
El Ejido30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marbelli
1.29
El Ejido
1.05

Marbelli creates 23% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 49 away

creates per match

Marbelli
1.15
El Ejido
1.16

allows per match

Marbelli
0.94
El Ejido
1.43

finishing

Marbelli+0.00on par
El Ejido+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marbelli ↓

El Ejido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Marbelli or draw
70%
Marbelli or El Ejido
72%
Draw or El Ejido
58%

Winning margin

Marbelli wins by 2+
19%
El Ejido wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Marbelli 1+ goals
72%
Marbelli 2+ goals
37%
Marbelli 3+ goals
14%
El Ejido 1+ goals
65%
El Ejido 2+ goals
28%
El Ejido 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Marbelli (draw refunded)
58%
El Ejido (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marbelli at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

El Ejido away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marbelli attack 1.15 + El Ejido defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

El Ejido attack 1.16 + Marbelli defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Marbelli scores more
42%
level
28%
El Ejido scores more
30%

Marbelli at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Marbelli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Marbelli 1 – 0 El Ejido

Marbelli beat El Ejido 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on January 19, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in San Pedro de Alcántara.