Marbella 0–3 Yeclano: Result & Stats

Marbella

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Yeclano

11/24/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Banús Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Marbella37%

×Draw31%

Yeclano32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarbellaExpected goals in this matchYeclano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.96

Marbella

1.06

Yeclano

0.96

Marbella creates 10% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

1.24

creates per match

0.84

1.08

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Marbella

1.24

Yeclano

0.84

allows per match

Marbella

1.08

Yeclano

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marbella+0.00on par

Yeclano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marbella ↓

Yeclano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Marbella or draw

68%

Marbella or Yeclano

69%

Draw or Yeclano

63%

Winning margin

Marbella wins by 2+

15%

Yeclano wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Marbella 1+ goals

65%

Marbella 2+ goals

29%

Marbella 3+ goals

9%

Yeclano 1+ goals

62%

Yeclano 2+ goals

25%

Yeclano 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Marbella (draw refunded)

54%

Yeclano (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marbella at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

Yeclano away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marbella attack 1.24 + Yeclano defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.06

Yeclano attack 0.84 + Marbella defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Marbella scores more

37%

level

31%

Yeclano scores more

32%

Marbella at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Marbella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff