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Marbella vs Sevilla Atletico — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Marbella
Marbella
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sevilla Atletico
Sevilla Atletico
3/22/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29Banus Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Marbella49%
×Draw27%
Sevilla Atletico23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marbella
1.39
Sevilla Atletico
0.86

Marbella creates 62% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

creates per match

Marbella
1.24
Sevilla Atletico
0.65

allows per match

Marbella
1.08
Sevilla Atletico
1.53

finishing

Marbella+0.00on par
Sevilla Atletico+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marbella ↓

Sevilla Atletico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Marbella or draw
77%
Marbella or Sevilla Atletico
73%
Draw or Sevilla Atletico
51%

Winning margin

Marbella wins by 2+
24%
Sevilla Atletico wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Marbella 1+ goals
75%
Marbella 2+ goals
40%
Marbella 3+ goals
16%
Sevilla Atletico 1+ goals
58%
Sevilla Atletico 2+ goals
21%
Sevilla Atletico 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Marbella (draw refunded)
68%
Sevilla Atletico (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marbella at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

Sevilla Atletico away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.53 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marbella attack 1.24 + Sevilla Atletico defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sevilla Atletico attack 0.65 + Marbella defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Marbella scores more
49%
level
27%
Sevilla Atletico scores more
23%

Marbella at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Marbella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Marbella 3 – 0 Sevilla Atletico

Marbella beat Sevilla Atletico 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 22, 2026.

The match was played at Banus Football Center in Marbella.