Marbella 0–1 Sabadell: Result & Stats

Marbella

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sabadell

A. Godoy 89'

4/26/2026

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 34Banus Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Marbella36%

×Draw28%

Sabadell36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarbellaExpected goals in this matchSabadell

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

Marbella

1.16

Sabadell

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

1.24

creates per match

1.23

1.08

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Marbella

1.24

Sabadell

1.23

allows per match

Marbella

1.08

Sabadell

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marbella+0.00on par

Sabadell+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marbella ↓

Sabadell →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Marbella or draw

64%

Marbella or Sabadell

72%

Draw or Sabadell

64%

Winning margin

Marbella wins by 2+

15%

Sabadell wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Marbella 1+ goals

69%

Marbella 2+ goals

32%

Marbella 3+ goals

11%

Sabadell 1+ goals

69%

Sabadell 2+ goals

32%

Sabadell 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Marbella (draw refunded)

50%

Sabadell (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marbella at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

Sabadell away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marbella attack 1.24 + Sabadell defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Sabadell attack 1.23 + Marbella defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Marbella scores more

36%

level

28%

Sabadell scores more

36%

Marbella at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Marbella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

J. C. Lazaro Cervera

19'

Eugeni

32'

A. Escassi

58'

C. Garcia← Rodri

63'

Alexiel← E. Ohemeng

65'

R. Martinez← A. Coscia

65'

A. Godoy← J. Lopez

69'

A. Gil← A. Ruiz

75'

J. Rodriguez

78'

U. Bujan← J. Rodriguez

78'

Gabri← D. Selma

82'

C. Aleman← Q. Liameed

82'

A. Tolosa← E. Aguilar Elizalde

85'

D. Astals

89'

A. Godoy

Marbella

Sabadell

1

14

15

5

3

24

▼

Elizalde

20

Cerarols

22

▼

Liameed

19

▼

Lopez

9

▼

Rodri

17

▼

Coscia

1

Garcia

2

Alvarez

22

▼

23

3

20

8

16

▼

Ruiz

19

▼

Ohemeng

24

▼

Selma

9

Sanchez

Manager: David Cabello

63'▲Alexiel←▼E. Ohemeng

69'▲A. Gil←▼A. Ruiz

78'▲U. Bujan←▼J. Rodriguez

78'▲Gabri←▼D. Selma

Marbella substitutes

34Barrios7Awudu10Gil14Bujan15Gabri17Alexiel21Llacer

Manager: Ferran Costa

58'▲C. Garcia←▼Rodri

65'▲R. Martinez←▼A. Coscia

65'▲A. Godoy←▼J. Lopez

82'▲C. Aleman←▼Q. Liameed

82'▲A. Tolosa←▼E. Aguilar Elizalde

Sabadell substitutes

25Ruiz28Ciurans2Aleman4Garcia11Martinez16Godoy18Ortega21Sergi26Tolosa

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Marbella 0–1 Sabadell

Sabadell beat Marbella 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 26, 2026.

Goals: A. Godoy (89').

The match was played at Banus Football Center in Marbella.

Marbella vs Sabadell — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Marbella 0–1 Sabadell