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Marbella vs Málaga II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Marbella
Marbella
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Málaga II
Málaga II
3/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 26Banús Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Marbella56%
×Draw24%
Málaga II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marbella
1.75
Málaga II
0.97

Marbella creates 80% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 92 away

creates per match

Marbella
2.39
Málaga II
1.35

allows per match

Marbella
0.58
Málaga II
1.10

finishing

Marbella+0.00on par
Málaga II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marbella ↓

Málaga II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Marbella or draw
79%
Marbella or Málaga II
76%
Draw or Málaga II
44%

Winning margin

Marbella wins by 2+
31%
Málaga II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Marbella 1+ goals
83%
Marbella 2+ goals
52%
Marbella 3+ goals
25%
Málaga II 1+ goals
62%
Málaga II 2+ goals
25%
Málaga II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Marbella (draw refunded)
73%
Málaga II (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marbella at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.58 · 31 matches

Málaga II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marbella attack 2.39 + Málaga II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.75

Málaga II attack 1.35 + Marbella defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Marbella scores more
56%
level
24%
Málaga II scores more
21%

Marbella at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Marbella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marbella vs Málaga II

Marbella beat Málaga II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Banús Football Center in Marbella.