Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Marbella vs Malaga City — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Marbella
Marbella
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Malaga City
Malaga City
1/8/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 16Estadio José Burgos Quintana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Marbella73%
×Draw18%
Malaga City9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marbella
2.17
Malaga City
0.63

Marbella creates 244% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 49 away

creates per match

Marbella
2.39
Malaga City
0.67

allows per match

Marbella
0.58
Malaga City
1.96

finishing

Marbella+0.00on par
Malaga City+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marbella ↓

Malaga City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Marbella or draw
91%
Marbella or Malaga City
82%
Draw or Malaga City
27%

Winning margin

Marbella wins by 2+
48%
Malaga City wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Marbella 1+ goals
89%
Marbella 2+ goals
64%
Marbella 3+ goals
36%
Malaga City 1+ goals
47%
Malaga City 2+ goals
13%
Malaga City 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Marbella (draw refunded)
88%
Malaga City (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marbella at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.58 · 31 matches

Malaga City away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.96 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marbella attack 2.39 + Malaga City defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.17

Malaga City attack 0.67 + Marbella defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Marbella scores more
73%
level
18%
Malaga City scores more
9%

Marbella at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Marbella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marbella vs Malaga City

Marbella beat Malaga City 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on January 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio José Burgos Quintana in Coín.