Marbella 1–2 Juventud Torremolinos: Result & Stats

Marbella

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Juventud Torremolinos

Rufino Segovia 12' (pen)

Gato 90+3'

Dani 80'

3/20/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 29Marbella Football Center - Sur 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Marbella50%

×Draw25%

Juventud Torremolinos25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarbellaExpected goals in this matchJuventud Torremolinos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.05

Marbella

1.60

Juventud Torremolinos

1.05

Marbella creates 52% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 45 away

2.39

creates per match

1.53

0.58

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Marbella

2.39

Juventud Torremolinos

1.53

allows per match

Marbella

0.58

Juventud Torremolinos

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marbella+0.00on par

Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marbella ↓

Juventud Torremolinos →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Marbella or draw

75%

Marbella or Juventud Torremolinos

75%

Draw or Juventud Torremolinos

50%

Winning margin

Marbella wins by 2+

26%

Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+

Team goals

Marbella 1+ goals

80%

Marbella 2+ goals

47%

Marbella 3+ goals

22%

Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals

65%

Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals

28%

Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Marbella (draw refunded)

67%

Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Marbella at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.58 · 31 matches

Juventud Torremolinos away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Marbella attack 2.39 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.60

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.53 + Marbella defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Marbella scores more

50%

level

25%

Juventud Torremolinos scores more

25%

Marbella at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Marbella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Rufino SegoviaPenalty

62'

Nacho Lapeira← Miguel García

62'

José← Dani Lavela

73'

Boateng← Carlos de Lerma

73'

H. Medarious← Rufino Segovia

80'

Dani

85'

A. Ferro← Iván Sánchez

85'

Lasly← Gerrit

85'

Alberto Castro← Ito

89'

Franco← Jorge

90+4'

A. Chamorro← Alberto Castro

90+3'

Gato

Marbella

Juventud

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Abraham García

73'▲Boateng←▼Carlos de Lerma

73'▲H. Medarious←▼Rufino Segovia

85'▲A. Ferro←▼Iván Sánchez

89'▲Franco←▼Jorge

Marbella substitutes

BoatengMedariousFerroFranco

Manager: Ibón Pérez

62'▲Nacho Lapeira←▼Miguel García

62'▲José←▼Dani Lavela

85'▲Lasly←▼Gerrit

85'▲Alberto Castro←▼Ito

90+4'▲A. Chamorro←▼Alberto Castro

Juventud Torremolinos substitutes

LapeiraJoséLaslyCastroChamorro

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Marbella 1–2 Juventud Torremolinos

Juventud Torremolinos beat Marbella 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on March 20, 2022.

Goals: Rufino Segovia (12' pen), Dani (80'), Gato (90+3').

The match was played at Marbella Football Center - Sur 1 in San Pedro de Alcántara.

Marbella vs Juventud Torremolinos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Marbella 1–2 Juventud Torremolinos