Marbella 1–1 Ibiza: Result & Stats

Marbella

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ibiza

9/13/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Estadio Municipal de Marbella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Marbella37%

×Draw29%

Ibiza34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarbellaExpected goals in this matchIbiza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.05

Marbella

1.11

Ibiza

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

1.24

creates per match

1.02

1.08

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Marbella

1.24

Ibiza

1.02

allows per match

Marbella

1.08

Ibiza

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marbella+0.00on par

Ibiza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marbella ↓

Ibiza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Marbella or draw

66%

Marbella or Ibiza

71%

Draw or Ibiza

63%

Winning margin

Marbella wins by 2+

15%

Ibiza wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Marbella 1+ goals

67%

Marbella 2+ goals

30%

Marbella 3+ goals

10%

Ibiza 1+ goals

65%

Ibiza 2+ goals

28%

Ibiza 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Marbella (draw refunded)

52%

Ibiza (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marbella at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

Ibiza away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.98 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marbella attack 1.24 + Ibiza defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.11

Ibiza attack 1.02 + Marbella defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Marbella scores more

37%

level

29%

Ibiza scores more

34%

Marbella at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Marbella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff