Marbella 2–0 Gimnastic: Result & Stats

Marbella

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Gimnastic

J. Cambra 85'

V. Sanchez 22'

4/19/2026

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 33Banus Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Marbella43%

×Draw29%

Gimnastic27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarbellaExpected goals in this matchGimnastic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.90

Marbella

1.21

Gimnastic

0.90

Marbella creates 34% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

1.24

creates per match

0.72

1.08

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Marbella

1.24

Gimnastic

0.72

allows per match

Marbella

1.08

Gimnastic

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marbella+0.00on par

Gimnastic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marbella ↓

Gimnastic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Marbella or draw

73%

Marbella or Gimnastic

71%

Draw or Gimnastic

57%

Winning margin

Marbella wins by 2+

19%

Gimnastic wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Marbella 1+ goals

70%

Marbella 2+ goals

34%

Marbella 3+ goals

12%

Gimnastic 1+ goals

59%

Gimnastic 2+ goals

23%

Gimnastic 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Marbella (draw refunded)

61%

Gimnastic (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marbella at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

Gimnastic away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marbella attack 1.24 + Gimnastic defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Gimnastic attack 0.72 + Marbella defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Marbella scores more

43%

level

29%

Gimnastic scores more

27%

Marbella at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Marbella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

V. Sanchez

46'

P. Alcala← E. Pujol

46'

M. Montalvo← A. Gelardo

46'

J. Fuentes← K. Abdallah

49'

59'

68'

71'

75'

C. Omoigui← A. Jimenez

77'

M. Prendes

77'

M. Prendes

78'

Gabri← A. Gil

85'

89'

89'

89'

90+7'

Marbella

Gimnastic

1

Rebollo

2

▼

Camus

21

▼

Pujol

6

Prendes

16

Moi

7

▼

Abdallah

24

▼

10

14

23

11

▼

1

2

22

23

3

20

⚽

▼

Cambra

16

Ruiz

10

▼

Gil

19

▼

Ohemeng

24

▼

Selma

9

⚽

▼

Sanchez

Manager: David Cabello

71'▲Alexiel←▼E. Ohemeng

78'▲Gabri←▼A. Gil

89'▲L. Llacer←▼J. Cambra

89'▲U. Bujan←▼V. Sanchez

89'▲T. Awudu←▼D. Selma

Marbella substitutes

34Barrios5Carbonell21Llacer15Gabri17Alexiel14Bujan7Awudu

Manager: Pablo Alfaro

46'▲P. Alcala←▼E. Pujol

46'▲M. Montalvo←▼A. Gelardo

46'▲J. Fuentes←▼K. Abdallah

68'▲S. Santos←▼S. Camus

75'▲C. Omoigui←▼A. Jimenez

Gimnastic substitutes

13Fuidias20Santos5Alcala22Perez8Montalvo19Fuentes9Omoigui36Pozo12Almpanis

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Marbella 2–0 Gimnastic

Marbella beat Gimnastic 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 19, 2026.

Goals: V. Sanchez (22'), J. Cambra (85').

The match was played at Banus Football Center in Marbella.

Marbella vs Gimnastic — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Marbella 2–0 Gimnastic