Maranhão 3–1 Tuntum: Result & Stats | League #608

Maranhão

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tuntum

Unknown 84'

Patrick 61'

Vagalume 35'

Unknown 83'

1/14/2026

League #608 · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Maranhão49%

×Draw25%

Tuntum25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaranhãoExpected goals in this matchTuntum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.06

Maranhão

1.58

Tuntum

1.06

Maranhão creates 49% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

1.50

creates per match

1.33

0.80

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Maranhão

1.50

Tuntum

1.33

allows per match

Maranhão

0.80

Tuntum

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maranhão+0.00on par

Tuntum+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maranhão ↓

Tuntum →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Maranhão or draw

75%

Maranhão or Tuntum

75%

Draw or Tuntum

51%

Winning margin

Maranhão wins by 2+

26%

Tuntum wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Maranhão 1+ goals

79%

Maranhão 2+ goals

47%

Maranhão 3+ goals

21%

Tuntum 1+ goals

65%

Tuntum 2+ goals

29%

Tuntum 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Maranhão (draw refunded)

66%

Tuntum (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Maranhão at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Tuntum away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Maranhão attack 1.50 + Tuntum defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Tuntum attack 1.33 + Maranhão defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Maranhão scores more

49%

level

25%

Tuntum scores more

25%

Maranhão at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Maranhão will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

Vagalume

61'

Patrick

83'

84'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff