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Maranhão vs Tuna Luso — Serie D 2026

Maranhão
Maranhãoadvanced
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Tuna Luso
Tuna Luso
Clessione 65', 12'
Rafael Teixeira 32'
Ryan 26'
Ronaldy 82'
8/2/2025Serie DSerie D · Round of 32Estádio Governador João Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Maranhão56%
×Draw24%
Tuna Luso21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maranhão
1.72
Tuna Luso
0.94

Maranhão creates 83% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 29 away

creates per match

Maranhão
1.81
Tuna Luso
1.00

allows per match

Maranhão
0.88
Tuna Luso
1.62

finishing

Maranhão+0.00on par
Tuna Luso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 50Over: 5050%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maranhão ↓

Tuna Luso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Maranhão or draw
79%
Maranhão or Tuna Luso
76%
Draw or Tuna Luso
44%

Winning margin

Maranhão wins by 2+
31%
Tuna Luso wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Maranhão 1+ goals
82%
Maranhão 2+ goals
51%
Maranhão 3+ goals
25%
Tuna Luso 1+ goals
61%
Tuna Luso 2+ goals
24%
Tuna Luso 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Maranhão (draw refunded)
73%
Tuna Luso (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maranhão at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.88 · 32 matches

Tuna Luso away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maranhão attack 1.81 + Tuna Luso defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.72

Tuna Luso attack 1.00 + Maranhão defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Maranhão scores more
56%
level
24%
Tuna Luso scores more
21%

Maranhão at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Maranhão will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
Clessione
26'
Ryan
32'
Rafael Teixeira
65'
Clessione
82'
Ronaldy
Maranhão
Tuna
Marcinho Guerreiro
Manager: Marcinho Guerreiro
Ignácio Neto
Manager: Ignácio Neto

Match Recap: Maranhão vs Tuna Luso

Maranhão beat Tuna Luso 4-1 in Serie D on August 2, 2025.

Goals: Clessione (12', 65'), Ryan (26'), Rafael Teixeira (32'), Ronaldy (82').

The match was played at Estádio Governador João Castelo in São Luís, Maranhão.