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Maranhão vs River AC — Serie D 2018

Maranhão
Maranhão
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
River AC
River AC
5/28/2017Serie DSerie D · Round 2Estádio Governador João Castelo Ribeiro Gonçalves (São Luís, Maranhão)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Maranhão47%
×Draw27%
River AC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maranhão
1.41
River AC
0.97

Maranhão creates 45% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 20 away

creates per match

Maranhão
1.81
River AC
1.05

allows per match

Maranhão
0.88
River AC
1.00

finishing

Maranhão+0.00on par
River AC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maranhão ↓

River AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Maranhão or draw
74%
Maranhão or River AC
73%
Draw or River AC
53%

Winning margin

Maranhão wins by 2+
23%
River AC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Maranhão 1+ goals
76%
Maranhão 2+ goals
41%
Maranhão 3+ goals
17%
River AC 1+ goals
62%
River AC 2+ goals
25%
River AC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Maranhão (draw refunded)
65%
River AC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maranhão at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.88 · 32 matches

River AC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maranhão attack 1.81 + River AC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.41

River AC attack 1.05 + Maranhão defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Maranhão scores more
47%
level
27%
River AC scores more
26%

Maranhão at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Maranhão will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maranhão vs River AC

Maranhão beat River AC 3-0 in Serie D on May 28, 2017.

The match was played at Estádio Governador João Castelo Ribeiro Gonçalves (São Luís, Maranhão).