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Maranhão vs Nautico Recife — Copa do Nordeste 2020

Maranhão
Maranhão
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Nautico Recife
Nautico Recife
2/10/2024Copa do NordesteCopa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 2Estádio Governador João Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Maranhão41%
×Draw23%
Nautico Recife36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maranhão
1.71
Nautico Recife
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 25 away

creates per match

Maranhão
1.67
Nautico Recife
1.20

allows per match

Maranhão
2.00
Nautico Recife
1.76

finishing

Maranhão+0.00on par
Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maranhão ↓

Nautico Recife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Maranhão or draw
64%
Maranhão or Nautico Recife
77%
Draw or Nautico Recife
59%

Winning margin

Maranhão wins by 2+
21%
Nautico Recife wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Maranhão 1+ goals
82%
Maranhão 2+ goals
51%
Maranhão 3+ goals
24%
Nautico Recife 1+ goals
80%
Nautico Recife 2+ goals
47%
Nautico Recife 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Maranhão (draw refunded)
53%
Nautico Recife (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maranhão at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maranhão attack 1.67 + Nautico Recife defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.71

Nautico Recife attack 1.20 + Maranhão defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Maranhão scores more
41%
level
23%
Nautico Recife scores more
36%

Maranhão at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Maranhão will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maranhão vs Nautico Recife

Nautico Recife beat Maranhão 3-1 in Copa do Nordeste on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Governador João Castelo in São Luís, Maranhão.