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Maranhão vs Juazeirense — Copa do Nordeste 2020

Maranhão
Maranhão
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Juazeirense
Juazeirense
2/21/2024Copa do NordesteCopa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 4Estádio Governador João Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Maranhão51%
×Draw22%
Juazeirense27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maranhão
1.91
Juazeirense
1.32

Maranhão creates 45% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Maranhão
1.67
Juazeirense
0.64

allows per match

Maranhão
2.00
Juazeirense
2.14

finishing

Maranhão+0.00on par
Juazeirense+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maranhão ↓

Juazeirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Maranhão or draw
73%
Maranhão or Juazeirense
78%
Draw or Juazeirense
49%

Winning margin

Maranhão wins by 2+
29%
Juazeirense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Maranhão 1+ goals
85%
Maranhão 2+ goals
57%
Maranhão 3+ goals
30%
Juazeirense 1+ goals
73%
Juazeirense 2+ goals
38%
Juazeirense 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Maranhão (draw refunded)
66%
Juazeirense (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maranhão at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Juazeirense away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maranhão attack 1.67 + Juazeirense defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.91

Juazeirense attack 0.64 + Maranhão defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Maranhão scores more
51%
level
22%
Juazeirense scores more
27%

Maranhão at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Maranhão will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa do Nordeste: Maranhão 2–1 Juazeirense

Maranhão beat Juazeirense 2-1 in Copa do Nordeste on February 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Governador João Castelo in São Luís, Maranhão.