Maranhão 1–1 Iguatu: Result & Stats | Serie D

Maranhão

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Iguatu

Vagalume 90', 85'

Dudu 90'

Geovani Silva 90'

6/8/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Governador João Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Maranhão53%

×Draw26%

Iguatu21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaranhãoExpected goals in this matchIguatu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.86

Maranhão

1.53

Iguatu

0.86

Maranhão creates 78% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

1.81

creates per match

0.84

0.88

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Maranhão

1.81

Iguatu

0.84

allows per match

Maranhão

0.88

Iguatu

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maranhão+0.00on par

Iguatu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maranhão ↓

Iguatu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Maranhão or draw

79%

Maranhão or Iguatu

74%

Draw or Iguatu

47%

Winning margin

Maranhão wins by 2+

27%

Iguatu wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Maranhão 1+ goals

78%

Maranhão 2+ goals

45%

Maranhão 3+ goals

20%

Iguatu 1+ goals

58%

Iguatu 2+ goals

21%

Iguatu 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Maranhão (draw refunded)

71%

Iguatu (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maranhão at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.88 · 32 matches

Iguatu away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.25 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maranhão attack 1.81 + Iguatu defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.53

Iguatu attack 0.84 + Maranhão defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Maranhão scores more

53%

level

26%

Iguatu scores more

21%

Maranhão at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Maranhão will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

85'

Vagalume

90+12'

90+13'

90'

Vagalume

90'

Dudu

90'

Geovani Silva

Maranhão

Iguatu

Manager: Marcinho Guerreiro

Manager: Washington Luiz