Maranhão 2–1 Central SC: Result & Stats | Serie D

Maranhão

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Central SC

Igor 45'

Clessione 37'

Jo Santos 89' (pen)

8/16/2025

Serie D · Round of 16Estádio Governador João Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Maranhão49%

×Draw28%

Central SC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaranhãoExpected goals in this matchCentral SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.86

Maranhão

1.38

Central SC

0.86

Maranhão creates 60% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 37 away

1.81

creates per match

0.84

0.88

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Maranhão

1.81

Central SC

0.84

allows per match

Maranhão

0.88

Central SC

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maranhão+0.00on par

Central SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maranhão ↓

Central SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Maranhão or draw

77%

Maranhão or Central SC

72%

Draw or Central SC

51%

Winning margin

Maranhão wins by 2+

24%

Central SC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Maranhão 1+ goals

75%

Maranhão 2+ goals

40%

Maranhão 3+ goals

16%

Central SC 1+ goals

58%

Central SC 2+ goals

21%

Central SC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Maranhão (draw refunded)

68%

Central SC (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maranhão at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.88 · 32 matches

Central SC away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.95 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maranhão attack 1.81 + Central SC defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.38

Central SC attack 0.84 + Maranhão defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Maranhão scores more

49%

level

28%

Central SC scores more

23%

Maranhão at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Maranhão will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

Clessione

45'

Igor

89'

Jo SantosPenalty

Maranhão

Central

Manager: Marcinho Guerreiro

Manager: Leandro Sena