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Maranhão vs ASA — Serie D 2026

Maranhão
Maranhãoadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ASA
ASA
Clessione 90'
8/30/2025Serie DSerie D · Quarter-finalsEstádio Governador João Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Maranhão50%
×Draw26%
ASA24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maranhão
1.47
ASA
0.92

Maranhão creates 60% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 58 away

creates per match

Maranhão
1.81
ASA
0.95

allows per match

Maranhão
0.88
ASA
1.12

finishing

Maranhão+0.00on par
ASA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 57Over: 4357%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maranhão ↓

ASA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Maranhão or draw
76%
Maranhão or ASA
74%
Draw or ASA
50%

Winning margin

Maranhão wins by 2+
25%
ASA wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Maranhão 1+ goals
77%
Maranhão 2+ goals
43%
Maranhão 3+ goals
18%
ASA 1+ goals
60%
ASA 2+ goals
23%
ASA 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Maranhão (draw refunded)
68%
ASA (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maranhão at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.88 · 32 matches

ASA away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maranhão attack 1.81 + ASA defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.47

ASA attack 0.95 + Maranhão defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Maranhão scores more
50%
level
26%
ASA scores more
24%

Maranhão at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Maranhão will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'
Clessione
Maranhão
ASA
Marcinho Guerreiro
Manager: Marcinho Guerreiro
Ranielle Ribeiro
Manager: Ranielle Ribeiro

Match Recap: Maranhão vs ASA

Maranhão beat ASA 1-0 in Serie D on August 30, 2025.

Goals: Clessione (90').

The match was played at Estádio Governador João Castelo in São Luís, Maranhão.