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Maranhão vs AO Itabaiana — Serie C 2026

Maranhão
Maranhão
Preview
21:30
AO Itabaiana
AO Itabaiana
8/23/2026Serie CSerie C · Round 18
47%
Maranhão
model favours
47%30%22%

Maranhão score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
70%
under 2.5 goals
36%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Maranhão47%
×Draw30%
AO Itabaiana22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maranhão
1.19
AO Itabaiana
0.72

Maranhão creates 65% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 17 away

creates per match

Maranhão
1.14
AO Itabaiana
0.59

allows per match

Maranhão
0.86
AO Itabaiana
1.24

finishing

Maranhão+0.00on par
AO Itabaiana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 70Over: 3070%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 64Yes: 3664%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maranhão ↓

AO Itabaiana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Maranhão or draw
78%
Maranhão or AO Itabaiana
70%
Draw or AO Itabaiana
53%

Winning margin

Maranhão wins by 2+
21%
AO Itabaiana wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Maranhão 1+ goals
70%
Maranhão 2+ goals
33%
Maranhão 3+ goals
12%
AO Itabaiana 1+ goals
51%
AO Itabaiana 2+ goals
16%
AO Itabaiana 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Maranhão (draw refunded)
68%
AO Itabaiana (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maranhão at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

AO Itabaiana away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maranhão attack 1.14 + AO Itabaiana defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

AO Itabaiana attack 0.59 + Maranhão defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Maranhão scores more
47%
level
30%
AO Itabaiana scores more
22%

Maranhão at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Maranhão will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 18% of AO Itabaiana’s matches
  • 73% of AO Itabaiana’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • 70% of Maranhão’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 30% of Maranhão’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Maranhão
WLDLD
Itabaiana
WWWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Maranhão face AO Itabaiana (Serie C)

Serie C returns with Maranhão hosting AO Itabaiana. Match starts August 23, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.